4am update on system in the Gulf

There are tropical storm warnings in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida, and from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A storm system is gaining strength in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico that's expected to become Tropical Storm Nestor sometime today or tomorrow. Forecasters say the storm will most likely make landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle, bringing heavy rain and possible flooding. Because MS would be on the drier side of the system, it’s possible we won’t get much of an impact. However, some heavy rain bands with gusty winds are possible as early as tonight.

BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019

400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A

TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W

ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida

* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 24 to 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these

areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property

from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude

24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the

northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster

forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the

forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast

later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the

southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher

gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or

subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then

anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance

again in a few hours.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

to the north and east of the possible center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft

Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by later today, making outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast

of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall

accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf

Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,

with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Avila


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